Clinical consequences of nonadherence to Barrett's esophagus surveillance recommendations: a Multicenter prospective cohort study.

Half of Barrett's esophagus (BE) surveillance endoscopies do not adhere to guideline recommendations. In this multicenter prospective cohort study, we assessed the clinical consequences of nonadherence to recommended surveillance intervals and biopsy protocol. Data from BE surveillance patients were collected from endoscopy and pathology reports; questionnaires were distributed among endoscopists. We estimated the association between (non)adherence and (i) endoscopic curability of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC), (ii) mortality, and (iii) misclassification of histological diagnosis according to a multistate hidden Markov model. Potential explanatory parameters (patient, facility, endoscopist variables) for nonadherence, related to clinical impact, were analyzed. In 726 BE patients, 3802 endoscopies were performed by 167 endoscopists. Adherence to surveillance interval was 16% for non-dysplastic (ND)BE, 55% for low-grade dysplasia (LGD), and 54% of endoscopies followed the Seattle protocol. There was no evidence to support the following statements: longer surveillance intervals or fewer biopsies than recommended affect endoscopic curability of EAC or cause-specific mortality (P > 0.20); insufficient biopsies affect the probability of NDBE (OR 1.0) or LGD (OR 2.3) being misclassified as high-grade dysplasia/EAC (P > 0.05). Better adherence was associated with older patients (OR 1.1), BE segments ≤ 2 cm (OR 8.3), visible abnormalities (OR 1.8, all P ≤ 0.05), endoscopists with a subspecialty (OR 3.2), and endoscopists who deemed histological diagnosis an adequate marker (OR 2.0). Clinical consequences of nonadherence to guidelines appeared to be limited with respect to endoscopic curability of EAC and mortality. This indicates that BE surveillance recommendations should be optimized to minimize the burden of endoscopies.

Today's Mistakes and Tomorrow's Wisdom In Barrett's Surveillance.

Background: Barrett's esophagus (BE) is the only known precursor lesion of esophageal adenocarcinoma, a malignancy with increasing incidence and poor survival rates. To reduce mortality, regular endoscopic surveillance of BE patients is recommended to detect neoplasia in an (endoscopically) curable stage. In this review, we aim to provide an overview of current BE surveillance strategies, its pitfalls, and potential future directions to optimize BE surveillance. Summary: Several societal guidelines provide surveillance strategies. However, when practicing those endoscopies multiple drawbacks are encountered. Important challenges are time-consuming biopsy protocols with low adherence rates, biopsy sampling error, interobserver variability in endoscopic detection of lesions, and interobserver variability in diagnosis of dysplasia. Furthermore, the overall efficacy and cost-effectiveness of surveillance are questioned. Using novel techniques, such as artificial intelligence and personalized surveillance intervals, can help to overcome these obstacles. Key Messages: Currently, there is room for improvement in BE surveillance. Better risk-stratification is expected to reduce both patient and healthcare burdens. Personalized and dynamic surveillance intervals accompanied by novel techniques in detection and histopathological assessment of dysplasia may be tools for a change in the right direction.

Sex Differences in Neoplastic Progression in Barrett's Esophagus: A Multicenter Prospective Cohort Study.

Recommendations in Barrett's esophagus (BE) guidelines are mainly based on male patients. We aimed to evaluate sex differences in BE patients in (1) probability of and (2) time to neoplastic progression, and (3) differences in the stage distribution of neoplasia. We conducted a multicenter prospective cohort study including 868 BE patients. Cox regression modeling and accelerated failure time modeling were used to estimate the sex differences. Neoplastic progression was defined as high-grade dysplasia (HGD) and/or esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). Among the 639 (74%) males and 229 females that were included (median follow-up 7.1 years), 61 (7.0%) developed HGD/EAC. Neoplastic progression risk was estimated to be twice as high among males (HR 2.26, 95% CI 1.11-4.62) than females. The risk of HGD was found to be higher in males (HR 3.76, 95% CI 1.33-10.6). Time to HGD/EAC (AR 0.52, 95% CI 0.29-0.95) and HGD (AR 0.40, 95% CI 0.19-0.86) was shorter in males. Females had proportionally more EAC than HGD and tended to have higher stages of neoplasia at diagnosis. In conclusion, both the risk of and time to neoplastic progression were higher in males. However, females were proportionally more often diagnosed with (advanced) EAC. We should strive for improved neoplastic risk stratification per individual BE patient, incorporating sex disparities into new prediction models.

A personalized and dynamic risk estimation model: The new paradigm in Barrett's esophagus surveillance.

OBJECTIVES: The current surveillance strategy in Barrett's esophagus (BE) uses only histological findings of the last endoscopy to assess neoplastic progression risk. As predictor values vary across endoscopies, single measurements may not be an accurate reflection. Our aim was to explore the value of using longitudinal evolutions (i.e. successive measurements) of histological findings (low-grade dysplasia (LGD)) and immunohistochemical biomarkers (p53 and SOX2) by investigating the association with Barrett's progression. METHODS: In this proof-of-principle study of a longitudinal dynamic risk estimation model with a multicenter cohort design, 631 BE patients from 15 Dutch hospitals who were under surveillance were included. Longitudinal dynamic values of LGD, p53, and SOX2 were included in a multivariate joint model to estimate the risk of high-grade dysplasia (HGD)/esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). RESULTS: Longitudinal evolutions of aberrant expression of p53 (HR 1.26, p<0.01) and SOX2 (HR 1.43, p<0.01) were associated with an increased HGD/EAC risk. We also found weak evidence of an association with the longitudinal evolution of the presence of LGD (HR 1.02, p = 0.12). The performance of the model was good (AUC 0.80-0.88). Using this model, for each future BE patient the probability of aberrant expression of biomarkers based on multiple longitudinal observations can be estimated. This probability is translated in progression risk, expressed as HR. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides solid ground to further explore a paradigm shift from currently recommended fixed intervals towards personalized surveillance, in which tailored risk estimations and corresponding surveillance intervals can be updated at every FU endoscopy for individual BE patients.

Low Risk of Progression of Barrett's Esophagus to Neoplasia in Women.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Men are at a higher risk for Barrett's esophagus (BE) and esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC), but little is known about BE progression to dysplasia and EAC in women. We performed a retrospective, multicenter cohort study to assess risk of BE progression to dysplasia and EAC in women compared with men. We also investigated comorbidities, medication use, and endoscopic features that contribute to sex differences in risk of BE progression. METHODS: We collected data from large cohort of patients with BE seen at 6 centers in the United States and Europe, followed for a median 5.7 years. We obtained demographic information (age, sex, ethnicity), clinical history (tobacco use, body mass index, comorbidities), endoscopy results (procedure date, BE segment length), and histopathology findings. Neoplasia was graded as low-grade dysplasia, high-grade dysplasia (HGD), or EAC. Rates of disease progression between women and men were compared using χ2 analysis and the Student t test. Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess the association between sex and disease progression after adjusting for possible confounding variables. RESULTS: Of the total 4263 patients in the cohort, 2145 met the inclusion criteria, including 324 (15%) women. There was a total of 34 (1.6%) incident EACs, with an overall annual incidence of 0.3% (95% confidence interval: 0.2%-0.4%). We found significant differences between women and men in annual incidence rates of EAC (0.05% for women vs. 0.3% in men; P=0.04) and in the combined endpoint of HGD or EAC (0.1% for women vs. 1.1% for men; P<0.001). Female gender was an independent predictor for reduced progression to HGD or EAC when rates of progression were adjusted for body mass index, smoking history, race, use of aspirin, nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, proton-pump inhibitors, or statins, hypertriglyceridemia, BE length, and histology findings at baseline (hazard ratio: 0.11; 95% confidence interval: 0.03-0.45; P=0.002). CONCLUSIONS: In a multicenter study of men versus women with BE, we found a significantly lower risk of disease progression to cancer and HGD in women. The extremely low risk of EAC in women with BE (0.05%/y) indicates that surveillance endoscopy may not be necessary for this subgroup of patients with BE.

The Impact of the Policy-Practice Gap on Costs and Benefits of Barrett's Esophagus Management.

INTRODUCTION: Clinical guidelines recommend surveillance of patients with Barrett's esophagus (BE). However, the surveillance intervals in practice are shorter than policy recommendations. We aimed to determine how this policy-practice gap affects the costs and benefits of BE surveillance. METHODS: We used the Netherlands as an exemplary Western country and simulated a cohort of 60-year-old patients with BE using the Microsimulation Screening Analysis model-esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) microsimulation model. We evaluated surveillance according to the Dutch guideline and more intensive surveillance of patients without dysplastic BE and low-grade dysplasia. For each strategy, we computed the quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained and costs compared with no surveillance. We also performed a budget impact analysis to estimate the increased costs of BE management in the Netherlands for 2017. RESULTS: Compared with no surveillance, the Dutch guideline incurred an additional &OV0556;5.0 ($5.7) million per 1,000 patients with BE for surveillance and treatment, whereas 57 esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) cases (>T1a) were prevented. With intensive and very intensive surveillance strategies for both nondysplastic BE and low-grade dysplasia, the net costs increased by another &OV0556;2.5-5.6 ($2.8-6.5) million while preventing 10-19 more EAC cases and gaining 33-60 more QALYs. On a population level, this amounted to &OV0556;21-47 ($24-54) million (+32%-70%) higher healthcare costs in 2017. DISCUSSION: The policy-practice gap in BE surveillance intervals results in 50%-114% higher net costs for BE management for only 10%-18% increase in QALYs gained, depending on actual intensity of surveillance. Incentives to eliminate this policy-practice gap should be developed to reduce the burden of BE management on patients and healthcare resources.

Adherence to recommendations of Barrett's esophagus surveillance guidelines: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Guidelines aim to reduce treatment variation and improve quality of care. In the literature there is large variation in the reported rates of adherence to recommendations of surveillance for Barrett's esophagus (BE). The aim of this systematic review was to identify explanatory parameters determining these differences in adherence rates. METHODS: Embase, Medline Epub, and Web of Science were searched. Studies reporting adherence in at least one of five domains were selected: general domain, surveillance interval, biopsy protocol, landmark identification, and histopathological information. Adherence was expressed as the proportion of endoscopies or endoscopists being in accordance with guideline recommendations. Variation in adherence was evaluated by 1) meta-regression of adherence rates in random effects meta-analysis to define subgroups, and 2) compiling an overview of the most reported explanatory parameters for (non)adherence. RESULTS: 56 studies, including 14 002 BE patients and 4932 endoscopists, were included. Subgroup analysis showed that variation in rates of adherences to surveillance interval recommendations (I 2 = 98 % - 99 %) was explained by difference in country (43 %), by practice type (90 %), and by year of publication (11 %). Variation in adherence to the Seattle protocol was explained by difference in country (14 %). Factors most frequently reported to be associated with better adherence were shorter BE length, salaried employment, surveillance in university hospitals, and dedicated programs. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides insight into the variability of rates of adherence to BE surveillance recommendations between studies. Better adherence in university hospitals and dedicated programs indicate that persistent alertness of guidelines is important.

Endoscopic ultrasound measurements for detection of residual disease after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy for esophageal cancer.

BACKGROUND: Endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) measurements of residual thickness and residual area have been suggested to correlate with histopathological residual tumor after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) for esophageal cancer. This study assessed the predictive value of EUS-based measurements using tumor thickness and tumor area before nCRT, and residual thickness and residual area 6 and 12 weeks after completion of nCRT for detection of residual disease. METHODS: This was a substudy of the diagnostic multicenter preSANO trial. The primary end point of the current study was the percentage of tumor regression grade (TRG) 3 - 4 (> 10 % vital tumor cells) residual disease that was detected using EUS-based measurements. Associations of absolute measurements of residual thickness/area and proportional change compared with baseline were evaluated. In the case of a statistically significant association, optimal cut-offs to distinguish TRG3 - 4 residual disease from TRG1 (no vital tumor cells) were determined using Youden's J index. RESULTS: 138 patients were included. Residual thickness and residual area were statistically significantly associated with TRG3 - 4 residual disease 12 weeks after completion of nCRT (odds ratio 1.36, P < 0.01 and 1.64, P = 0.02, respectively). The cut-off for residual thickness was 4.5 mm, which correctly detected 87 % of TRG3 - 4 residual disease and 52 % of TRG1. The cut-off for residual area was 0.92 cm2, which detected 89 % of TRG3 - 4 residual disease and 40 % of TRG1. CONCLUSIONS: EUS measurements of residual thickness and residual area adequately detected TRG3 - 4 residual disease with a sensitivity of almost 90 % 12 weeks after completion of nCRT. Hence, residual thickness and residual area may aid in the restaging of esophageal cancer after nCRT.